I won’t deny I left SJP late Saturday afternoon pissed off United couldn’t have beaten Luton, had conceded four goals to a side who will do well to stop up and indeed who we have provided four points to their survival cause and gone three home games without a win. That those three games include a defeat to Forest and draw to Luton (as well as a late loss to Man City) didn’t help my mood and nor did the thought those three games had seen United fail to win despite being in winning positions in all of them.

By the time Sunday morning came around and I’d digested more measured opinions from fellow Mags, I didn’t feel as disappointed as I did at full time Saturday but I can’t deny, I’m finding where we are now troubling.

Yes, I hear the supporter perspectives that the progress over the last two and a bit years has been rapid and the club is in an indescribably better state than it was at the time of the takeover. That is true.

It is also true that had last season followed this season our view of things would be different and the rise of United would be more linear and less of a rollercoaster journey we appear to have been on over the last eighteen months in particular. I say that understanding the road to success will contain snakes as ladders, though more of the latter will be needed obviously.

It is even true if we have swapped last week’s results around and drawn at Villa and defeated Luton to accumulate the same four points then that would be viewed as a positive sequence of results, particularly on the back of the great win at Fulham in the FAC 4^th round.

But none of these exercises in gymnastic logic really count because they aren’t real. Those spectres of being offered certain situations in the past are entertaining conversation pieces but let’s not afford them any seriousness.

It is also true that on Saturday we started a game without a recognised striker with Wilson and Isak both not fit to start. Further, our midfield was denied the services of Willock, Joelinton and Tonali. My instincts (whatever that is worth) tell me the backline also misses the presence of Nick Pope in the middle of our goal.

Within all of that is there is a rational explanation for our PL position and the pause in our progress this season. Additionally, off the park and following the end of a non-event of a January transfer window, we can point to the restrictions placed upon United by a nakedly protectionist set of Profit and Sustainability Rules (aka Financial Fair Play) and recognise how United’s ascent is stymied by the Premier League “big six” cartel.

All of this is true. This is a compelling narrative for supporters to buy into and rationalise this season without the hysteria we see from some within the attention seeking world of social media and its binary logic.

You can hear the BUT coming can’t you? And there is a BUT coming which matters to very important people involved at Newcastle United.

The people that really matter at Newcastle United aren’t you and I gentle reader.

What we make of this season or don’t is largely irrelevant. Those who pay the piper call the tune and they are in the Middle East.

How progress is viewed over in Riyadh and particularly the Saudi Public Investment Fund led by Yasir Al Rumayyan is what really counts and it is what he and they are being told (and accept) by Dan Ashworth, Darren Eales, Jamie Reuben and Amanda Staveley that matters.

For me the whole club has questions to answer.

Last summer the club’s priorities were well trailed in the media and they involved a left-back and Chelsea’s bright young defender Lewis Hall was brought in on a loan-to-buy deal. At 18 you’d imagine Ashworth had an eye on the future but having turned out nine times for the Chelsea first team last season, I don’t think the expectation was for him to move to the NE and play less football but that is how it has panned out.

Has Howe gone cold on Hall? Did he want him in the first place? Is Hall doing something wrong?

Indeed on Saturday as Burn struggled against the pace of Luton’s Chiedozie Ogbene the chant from a minority of supporters was for Tino Livramento to replace the Blyth lad. That spoke loudly of how far Hall has fallen off the radar given Livramento was widely expected to press Trippier at right-back this season and slotting in at left-back was an after-thought when he came in last summer. But Tino has played his football mainly at left-back in the first team.

You will remember United had options on Cucarella from Chelsea and Tierney from Arsenal, both more experienced (though neither faultless) but elected to take Hall on loan. I understand the financial pressures involved last summer too and don’t discount them.

Not that we are short of players who have played at left-back. We started the season with Manquillo and Lewis. Manquillo has now departed for Celta Vigo in the last few weeks but remained largely stubbornly unused under Howe and Jamaal Lewis is on loan at Watford in the Championship – the Northern Ireland international has figured 22 times for The Hornets so far. His United career appears still-born.

Paul Dummett may have been the first name on Rafa Benitez’s team-sheet and has been bedevilled with injuries throughout his career but remains on the club’s books whilst rarely kicking a ball in anger.

Notionally a central defender, Dummett has played most of his first team football at left-back … but not for Howe … despite contract extensions. Forgive the eye-roll at the “good around the training ground” stuff where Matt Ritchie does his best work these days too.

In the right-back position, Trippier reigns supreme as one of the best full-backs many of us have ever seen but Howe has been reluctant to rest him even when it would appear he has suffered badly from fatigue (Chelsea LC and Everton away games spring to mind).

Lots point to Krafth’s recovery in form since being unburdened by Bruce’s dead-head coaching but Howe has declined to use him (when he has been available after returning from injury) and nor has he called much upon Livramento at right-back or Manquillo or Ritchie in situations that aren’t in-extremis.  And even then …

We know the story with Tonali but whether Yasir and his mates from the PIF are singing the Sandro song in Saudi whilst contemplating the £60m invested in fee and the rest in wages given his unavailability remains to be seen.

Ashworth and United have been celebrated for their research into character and notwithstanding the seriousness of the Italian’s reported addiction it is inconceivable United would have proceeded to recruit him if they had known what was in the background. It is a fair question for PIF to ask Ashworth why he didn’t know.

The feeling persists AC Milan (and perhaps the FIGC) had Newcastle United’s pants down with Tonali and let’s be honest the player and his agent haven’t exactly suffered financially either.

I like the look of Harvey Barnes but even his signing raises questions given last summer again it was widely considered we needed an upgrade on Almiron/Murphy on the right-side, despite both possibly just having had the best season of their careers last time. Was last summer the best time to cash in on both?

That we should go in for Barnes (despite having Gordon) takes some explaining though we can speculate perhaps the plan was for Gordon to switch to right. We don’t know.

Then we get to January. For months the media talk (and some of it from the sensible ones) was Kalvin Phillips making his trip from East Manchester to north of the Tyne.

Indeed, it appeared right up to the Man City game at SJP that Phillips would be acquainting himself with Ham and Pease pudding stotties but in the end he’s now on pie and mash in East London. Well, its unlikely that forms a top level’s athlete’s diet but forgive me a flight of fancy.

A midfield reinforcement would have been handy before we went to Sunderland for the stroll in the FAC 3^rd round. Following the injury to Joelinton on Wearside and the news he’s largely missing for the rest of the season, it became critical. We waited for United to press the button and get Phillips but it didn’t happen. And it appears there wasn’t a Plan B.

18-year old Alfie Harrison from Man City isn’t the Plan B is he? Is he?

Despite being on the United payroll, Isaac Hayden and Jeff Hendrick weren’t even considered for returns even in walk-on parts despite United starting Saturday with only three fit midfielders in Lewis Miley, Bruno Guimarães and Sean Longstaff.

Hayden is now on-loan at QPR and after checking I’ve discovered Hendrick is at Sheff Wed … or at least that was the most recent sighting.

We really don’t know how PIF will react to a season where we now only look to have an outside chance of European football, didn’t get out of the CL Group and now look to the FAC as our sole source of glory this season.

I think we know well enough now that the people who own football clubs aren’t as excited by the FAC as we humble legacy supporters.

What they make of what has gone down over 2023/24 will be interesting.

They aren’t the only ones whose opinions matter more than ours though. To use an SBR expression, United have a clique of blue chip players that probably include Botman, Guimarães, Tonali* and Isak. Some might argue convincingly for Trippier, Joelinton and Pope.

I’m particularly referring to players with significant value in the transfer market with their best years ahead of them. I’ve starred Tonali because he has yet to do it in the PL.

If those players wake up one morning and wonder where Champions League football has gone and have their agents whispering in their ears that clubs involved in next season’s elite club competition want them then United might be on the back-foot.

We are going to have to wait and see what happens with all of that.

The Cup can be United’s salvation this season but really anything less than eighth in the PL will be disappointing.

The summer for me can’t come quick enough and the opportunity for perhaps the single largest reset with the United’s squad we have hitherto experienced as the slower, more deliberate pace of change hasn’t delivered desired results this season.

Before all of that of course there is a lot of football to be played and Forest away this Saturday. Howay United!

Keep On, Keepin’ On …

Michael Martin, @TFMick1892