This feature is one of two opinion pieces on the question of our former manager, newly on the job market as a consequence of being sacked at Everton. The counter-point piece to Yousef’s thoughts are from Matthew Philpotts are here‘

When considering whether Newcastle United should sack Eddie Howe and appoint Rafael Benitez, only one question needs to be asked: Who would be more likely to keep us in the Premier League? While that question seems to have been put to one side in light of the crucial win at Leeds, the question remains worth asking. Indeed, the survival of Newcastle United is too important for the question NOT to be asked.

There are subtly different ways of phrasing the question, and of framing the issue. But to my mind, the above formulation is the only way to put it, assuming that you’regard Newcastle United staying up as the most important thing. Sure, if you ask different questions (e.g. Is Howe at fault for our current malaise? Has Howe been given enough time to reverse the damage done by Ashley and Bruce? Is it fair to sack him?) then you get different answers. But it doesn’t stop those questions being the wrong ones.

I happen to think survival is crucial this season, to the exclusion of all other considerations. Absolutely nothing else matters. While the win at Elland Road was welcome, we remain in the drop zone and we are in a scrap. Paddypower and Betfair still have us at 5/4 to go down. Those are short odds, and they will shorten again if we do not pick up where we left off against Leeds I am concerned about the extent to which the Saudis will retain any interest in our club if we are relegated, or invest sufficiently to get us back up. While Staveley has said she is ‘not afraid of relegation’ (a ludicrous thing to say), her paymasters in Riyadh certainly do not want it. Owning a second-tier club is not part of their plan, even for a short period. I would not be surprised if they left us to rot. Perhaps that sounds paranoid. But I don’t want to find out.

If you agree that staying up is all that matters right now, then any decision – however cavalier or capricious – which (on the balance of probabilities) makes it more likely that we will do so, is the right one. By contrast, any decision – however principled or decent – which (again, on the balance of probabilities) does not further the cause of survival, is the wrong one. And make no mistake: sticking with Howe can only be justified if it is done actively and deliberately. Choosing to stick with the current manager – like choosing to stay in, or choosing not to move house – is voluntary. Nobody is forcing Staveley and Ghodoussi to persist with Howe. Moreover, there is no criminal standard of proof here: we do not need to be convinced that replacing Howe with Benitez (or, for that matter, any other manager) would definitely be the right decision, beyond all reasonable doubt, in order to support such a move. If we are 51% persuaded that a managerial change at this point would further the singular, bloody-minded objective – of increasing our prospects of staying up – then we should be in favour of it.

All the above is pretty dry stuff, but many of the voices in support of Howe have avoided engaging with the only relevant question and have focused on irrelevant fluff. Has Howe been given enough time? Well, no, of course not, but he is here to deliver on the club’s objectives, not the other way round, so it’s the wrong question. Shouldn’t we be trying to start with a clean slate post-takeover instead of looking to figures from our past? Perhaps, but that was a question for 7 October 2021, not 20 January 2022.

The takeover is ancient history now. Isn’t the real blame for our situation with the previous regime, who left Howe with a poor – and desperately unfit – playing squad? Most definitely, but it doesn’t follow that every manager would have played that hand (however dismal) the same way. Otherwise, the choice of manager doesn’t matter at all. Would it be cruel to sack Howe? It’s the wrong question, obviously, unless you care about Eddie Howe more than about Newcastle United, but in any case he’d leave as (on a pounds per game basis) the most richly-remunerated manager in the club’s history, for having done – on balance – a poor job. His reputation would remain largely intact.

The dismissal would rank fairly low down in a list of ‘bad things the Saudis have done’. And, regrettably, I do think (while recognising that we are still bathing in the warm glow of the Leeds result) it has been a poor job overall. Some on social media have pointed out that Howe has got 10 points from 10 games, (i.e. 1 point per game), which is better than either Bruce or Jones managed earlier in the season. That merely confirms that it was right to get rid of the previous manager, and to bring the caretaker period to an end. These are not credits in Howe’s column. Be in no doubt: 1 point per game is a poor return. If we collect points at that glacial rate until May, we will end up with 32 points, and will in all likelihood go down. These are facts, uncomfortable though they may be.

Very few of the voices in support of Howe have focused on actually comparing him with Benitez, and addressing the question of which of them would be more likely to keep us in the division. Prior to Leeds, for me the answer would have been Benitez (by a small but still recognisable margin). The triumph at Elland Road decreases that margin, but I would still be 50.00001% pro-Benitez. And, given that staying up this season is an absolute imperative, 50.00001% is good enough reason to make the change.

I do not think Howe is terrible, nor do I think Benitez is perfect. But, for me, even before getting into a comparison of their respective calibre (Benitez is genuine European managerial royalty, however underwhelming his time at Everton was), there are enough factors in Benitez’s favour which tip the balance ever so slightly in his direction. He can organise a defence. He knows the limitations of our squad. His style of football (less expansive, less possession-based) is familiar to these players. The status quo needs to change, and – as we are rapidly finding out – it is hard to get the players you want, when you are in our position, however rich your owners are. Sometimes, the only thing that club executives can do to disrupt the status quo is to change the manager and, however unfortunate that may be for Howe, replacing him with Benitez may be one of the only cards that Staveley and Ghodoussi actually have. Note how Watford have acted ruthlessly to replace Ranieri with Hodgson.

Was Ranieri to blame for all Watford’s shortcomings? No. Did he deserve more time? Probably – after all, if anyone is capable of getting the most out of a limited squad, it is probably the man who won the league with Danny Simpson in his side. But are Watford more likely to stay up today than they were yesterday? Well, the bookies think so, and so do I. That is the only question that was relevant to Watford’s administration, and it is the only question that should be relevant to ours. And, while removing Howe after less than three months in the job might seem like a remarkable thing to do, remember that if the takeover had been completed before Benitez joined Everton, he would almost certainly have been anointed as the first manager of the Saudi era – there would have been a coronation, not an interview process. Since the takeover, two things have happened: Benitez has become available again, and Howe (who was never first choice anyway) has disappointed: the Leeds win should not blind us to that. The convergence of developments is such that it would be remarkable if Staveley and Ghodoussi were not turning their minds to the issue right now.

I do not actively want Howe in or out, or Benitez in or out. I just want Newcastle United to stay up. I happen to think (just about – 50.00001%) that appointing Benitez would help, but I’ll support any decision which makes survival more likely, and I’ll oppose any decision (or deliberate avoidance of a decision) which does the opposite. If Staveley and Ghodoussi genuinely think we are more likely to stay up with Howe in charge, then I support that. The key thing, for me, is that they turn their minds to the right question, the only right question, and block out every other possible consideration.

Ultimately, I will support whoever wears black and white, under any manager.

Howay the lads.

YOUSEF HATEM -‘@yousef_1892