Will Newcastle United fans abandon Mike Ashley’s club in 2021/22?

I recently listened to a podcast where Radio X presenter, Johnny Vaughan, was discussing Mike Ashley’s ownership of Newcastle United. His theory was that Ashley was actually a social experiment simply testing the resilience of football supporters. How far could they be pushed before they finally broke?

Newcastle were the unfortunate club to be chosen for this social experiment. It was a club that, in the 12 seasons prior to Ashley’s arrival, had played in European competition ten times, finished four times in the top 4 and had reached two cup finals.

How far could Ashley push the supporters before they deserted the club? Two relegations? Umpteen relegation battles? Afailure to progress past the FA Cup 4^th round in 13 (THIRTEEN) consecutive seasons?

Nope. He had to try something else. Rip up over a hundred years of history by renaming the ground. Appoint the likes of Joe Kinnear, Steve McLaren and Dennis Wise. Fail to break the club’s transfer record for 14 years. Sell one after another of the club’s best players.

And yet they still turned up. Then he finally hit the jackpot. The point at which even Newcastle’s supporters snapped. He replaced Rafa Benitez with Steve Bruce in the summer of 2019.

The three seasons under Benitez (including one in the Championship), NUFC had averaged over 51,000 each season. In Bruce’s first season (19/20), that average dropped to 48,248. You might think that’s not too shabby but it hides some uncomfortable truths.

Firstly, Newcastle gave away free tickets on a scale never seen in their history. 10,000 half season tickets were offered to season ticket holders. Prior to this offer (the first game under the free ticket giveaway was Everton on 28/12/19), Newcastle’s average attendance was 46,049so this was a drop of 5k or 10% on the previous 3 seasons.

Again, on the face of it, averaging 46k doesn’t seem too bad butNewcastle were in fact on course for their lowest average attendance in the top-flight since the ground was extended to a 52,000 capacity. And this reduction of 5k essentially aligned to the reduction in season ticket holders (from 35k to 30k). Out of those 30k, there’s probably about 15-20k on long term deals.

So looking to the future, if we assume that all Covid restrictions are lifted, what can Newcastle expect for the long awaited return of fans next season? Of course, it’s dependent on a number of variables, none of which we can predict with any certainty at this time.

Firstly, in the event that we are taken over and appoint a new manager, there would likely be a stampede for season tickets not seen since the Keegan days. And some enterprising and highly optimisticfans may even risk buying a season ticket knowing the difficulties they’d have in securing one if the takeover does go through. But let’s park that and assume that Ashley and Bruce will still be the dream ticket partnership in charge of the club at the start of next season.

The second major factor will be the ambition shown by the club in the summer. If a stack of signings for multi-million pound transfer fees are unveiled then this would obviously boost season ticket sales. But back on planet Earth, reports already suggest that this will be a routine Mike Ashley transfer window with a budget of about ’10m or just about enough to buy Joelinton’s left leg. So a transfer splurge not likely to set supporters’ pulses racing in the summer and have them skipping to the ticket office.

The third factor is the pricing. Season ticket prices at NUFC (for those not on long term deals) had risen steeply in the two years prior to the pandemic hitting. Further price increases may be in the pipeline as the club attempt to recoup some of the big financial loss that they no doubt incurred last season. Any price increase will also, of course, result in a reduced take up of tickets particularly at a difficult time financially for many supporters.

The final factor is how the pandemic has impacted supporters’ behaviour as a whole. Some may have found better things to do with their time on a Saturday afternoon and decide they don’t want to return. Others may be desperate to get out the house again and live the match day experience. And yet others may have got used to watching the game in the comfort of their own home through subscriptions to Sky, BT and Amazon.

So there’s a number of reasons why we can expect attendances to struggle next year. My prediction would be about 25-30k season tickets and an average attendance of between 40-45k depending on results.

And me? I’ve made peace with the fact that Ashley and Bruce will be here next season. I’ve accepted that we will be mid-table at best but most likely in a relegation battle. I’m not expecting the football to be great. But I’m going to buy a season ticket for me and my boy.

Why? The truth isI miss it. I first started going with my mates when I was 11. Whilst not quite the all-consuming obsession it was 40 years ago, it’s still a big part of my life. As it was for my dad and my grandads before me. The owners and managers will change but it’s still my club and despite the current social experiment, I’ll continue to support it.

ANDREW TROBE – @tfAndy1892