We’re not relegated if we fail to pick up maximum points this week.

There are only three points on offer against Norwich, and only three against Burnley. ‘No more. ‘There were also three on offer against Arsenal, not that the message seemed to reach the players. ‘

Last week’s home game with Brentford was touted in some quarters as the biggest game in our recent history. ‘Now the same is being said about tomorrow. ‘It will be said again. ‘We would do well to keep a bit of perspective.

After this week, we have Leicester away. That’s not a lost cause: we won 4-2 there just six months ago, and they’re in mid-table this time around. ‘Liverpool away might look like a lost cause – but we cannot afford to think like that. We did the double over Spurs last time we went down. ‘None of the other teams around us will be writing games off. ‘Watford thumped Manchester United 4-1 last week. ‘Burnley picked up a point at Stamford Bridge. ‘Bielsa’s Leeds approach every match in the same, gung-ho, manner – it is their great strength as well as their undoing.

So no, this week – though important – is not decisive.

That is not to say I’m confident we will stay up. Personally, I believe we will, just. I have to believe that. I have to keep the faith. ‘I have no choice but to believe in our new owners and our new manager, and to support the team. This club is my club, etcetera. ‘But if we don’t, it will not be because we’ve failed to collect enough points this week: it will be because (with apologies for quoting Steve Bruce) we have failed to accumulate enough points over a 38-game season.

Rather than worrying about the gap to 17th, or how far ‘adrift’ we are (at any particular moment in time) all we can do is focus on our own matches, and our own points tally. ‘If we collect enough, then we’ll be fine. ‘We cannot dictate how many points our rivals will get.

How many do we need? 40 is the magic number, but is probably not needed. Until last season (which was an aberration – the three relegated teams were all dreadful), the lowest points total of the 17th placed team had been 34 points. Teams were considered extremely fortunate to stay up with 35 points. It may not be enough this year: the team currently in 16th (Watford) have 13 points from 13 games: exactly a point per game. So let’s say that a point per game – i.e. 38 by the end of the season – should be enough. ‘

In order to reach 38 points, Newcastle need to collect 32 points from the remaining 25 games. That is 1.28 points per game (which, if one were to perform at that level over the course of a full season, would equate to 49 points). In other words, we need to show the kind of form – between now and May – that would be equivalent to getting 49 points in a season. In the last 10 Premier League seasons, reaching 49 points would have given the following league positions:- 10th, 8th, 10th, 10th, 11th, 8th, 8th, 12th, 12th, 12th. ‘On average, 10th. ‘

Our start to the season has been so bad, that we now need to show form which would ordinarily be good enough for a 10th place finish, simply to stay up. ‘The last time we performed to that level in the Premier League was under Alan Pardew in the 2013-14 season (indeed, our 10th place finish in that season is the third one in the sequence above – we got exactly 49 points in that campaign). ‘To stay up, Howe has got to have his team performing at a higher level than any of McClaren, Benitez or Bruce. ‘

It does not look likely, looking at current form and performance level. Our position in the table is not a false one. We have deserved to lose all 7 of the matches we have lost. Of the 6 we have drawn, we arguably ought to have won 2 of those (Watford and Brentford), probably deserved the draw with Leeds, and were lucky to draw with Southampton, Brighton and Crystal Palace. The point at Selhurst, in particular, was utter burglary. ‘On my analysis, we should probably have 7 points rather than 6, but we’d still be rock bottom. ‘We’re a terrible side.

While I maintain that this week will not seal our fate, it’s worth sticking with the ‘accumulation of points’ analysis, to show how important the next two games nonetheless are. If we beat Norwich and Burnley, then we’ll be on 12 points, and (assuming 38 will do it), we’d need 26 points from the remaining 23 games (1.13 points per game; 43 points over the course of a season, which in the last 10 seasons has meant: 15th, 12th, 12th, 14th, 14th, 14th, 13th, 15th, 14th, 15th). ‘However, if we lose the next two games, then we’ll need 32 points from 23 games: again assuming 38 will do it, we’d need 1.39 points per game (53 points over the course of a season, which has been enough for an 8th place finish in 5 out of the last 10 seasons). ‘Pick up maximum points this week, and we’ll need to basically collect points at a similar rate to that at which Benitez and Bruce picked them up, for the remainder of the season. ‘Fail to pick up any, and the task only becomes harder, not far off requiring Europa League form.

The best analogy is limited-overs cricket. ‘If you do not score runs at the required rate, then you lose. ‘As you run out of overs, the required run-rate becomes less and less achievable. ‘We are not in a position to write off any matches now – no cricketer can just stand at the crease, playing defensive strokes or letting the ball float through to the slips, expecting to close the gap. ‘Arsenal away was not a free hit. ‘They aren’t very good. ‘Just ask Brentford.

This week is big, there’s no doubting that. ‘But such is the situation we’ve got ourselves into, they’re all big now. ‘Every game is the biggest in our history, until the next, and the next, as we run out of overs without scoring any runs. ‘Looking ahead, the unfortunate truth is that – even if we finally get that elusive win this week – our start has been so poor, that we cannot just see Leicester, Liverpool and Manchester City as opportunities to look for positives and hope for decent performances. ‘They are chances to collect points. ‘We get 38 of those chances in a season. ‘Just like everyone else.

Howay Eddie’s Mags.

Yousef Hatem @yousef_1892